Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104d0120bd0bf39d12c2a2e1f08a70b5590f59e72e3666b68215148280fe47de

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $755,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $393,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,176 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	25,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	18,670$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.8	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	14,737$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	14c	14,636$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,099.92	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	14,145$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.13	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	8,795$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.9	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	6c	8,719$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.72	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	3c	8,627$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.5	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	1c	8,600$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,015$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	16c	6,154$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	6,071$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.24	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	5,900$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.74	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	14c	5,758$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$822.57	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	21c	5,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	18c	4,367$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	16c	3,800$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	3,706$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.94	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	3,196$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	22c	3,109$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.06	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	3,107$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.72	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	15c	2,811$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.21	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	9c	2,700$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	1c	2,577$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	18c	2,537$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.86	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	13c	2,458$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes	21c	2,380$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	2,358$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	13c	2,220$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.59	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a56…6a0dbacked Yes	12c	2,019$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	3c	1,980$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.76	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	11c	1,902$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	1,765$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	18c	1,723$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.09	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	16c	1,600$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	1,600$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	19c	1,579$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ff…c445backed Yes	8c	1,474$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.94	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	3c	1,440$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.4	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	1,386$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	12c	1,330$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.9	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47b2…e8f0backed Yes	8c	1,300$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.02	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	2c	1,300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab33…8d20backed Yes	8c	1,289$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.12	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,238$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	17c	1,176$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	16c	1,162$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	13c	1,136$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.72	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes	20c	1,120$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.58	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	12c	1,111$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	8c	1,100$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c65…fff5backed Yes	8c	1,081$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes	13c	1,035$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.55	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes	15c	999.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	999.97$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	14c	977.37$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	14c	965.72$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ea…3bfdbacked Yes	8c	955.49$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	12c	899.99$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes	12c	880.67$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.98	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	23c	869.57$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	14c	814.29$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	16c	750.16$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.64	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe73…8b9cbacked Yes	9c	749.45$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7c…141dbacked Yes	13c	740$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	9c	736.58$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.66	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	19c	732.05$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.69	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	14c	731.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	14c	713.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	23c	700.48$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.11	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	12c	700$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	11c	700$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	7c	699.97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	12c	672.63$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.82	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed Yes	23c	655.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	15c	653.35$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.4	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	18c	637.07$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.49	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed Yes	18c	620$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.6	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fd…1144backed Yes	16c	619.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	16c	614.45$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.33	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	14c	592.85$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12f6…80c4backed Yes	8c	588.84$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	16c	587.41$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.21	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	16c	579.99$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…bfedbacked Yes	7c	569.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.89	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	9c	550$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event