Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20fe442de0d9429a26cc9e9dd64b9134824300de5a78f4a83b1606725f530621

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $833,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $429,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $833,038 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a7f…70cdbacked Yes	0c	32,994$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	32,358$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.36	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59b8…2e18backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	10,960$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	9,132$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	8,875$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.34	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,628$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.49	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	7,122$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	7,000$1,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.44	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,760$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.16	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked Yes	4c	6,617$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.1	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	6,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.04	831	14.9%124 W · 707 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	16c	5,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c5…21cebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	20c	4,796$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.08	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	4,642$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.31	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	11c	4,600$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.8	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	19c	4,304$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	2c	4,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	3,721$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.14	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	3,687$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.85	695	15.7%109 W · 586 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	3c	3,229$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	3,197$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.63	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	3,033$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	2,941$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.6	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	9c	2,894$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.12	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	1c	2,776$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4896…fe47backed Yes	1c	2,673$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	18c	2,600$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	10c	2,372$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.59	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	12c	2,329$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.81	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	2,302$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.1	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c2…1540backed Yes	14c	2,232$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.45	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	5c	2,161$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.53	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	16c	1,896$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	12c	1,745$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.85	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	6c	1,689$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.34	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,602$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	1,600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	10c	1,600$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	1,545$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.15	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	19c	1,521$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.66	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	1,520$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes	2c	1,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	1,483$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.74	508	19.1%97 W · 411 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d7…b96bbacked Yes	1c	1,470$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	4c	1,407$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	16c	1,138$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.67	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	6c	1,136$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.18	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	1,117$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	18c	1,113$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.25	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	17c	1,049$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	6c	1,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	11c	920.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	9c	911.01$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Yes	2c	909.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	15c	905.72$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.22	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	15c	810$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.5	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Yes	1c	773.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	11c	750.41$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.59	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b2…383dbacked Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x025b…ae93backed Yes	14c	729.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	16c	702.56$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.52	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	13c	700$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	10c	693.53$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.47	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	19c	632.16$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.11	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	12c	617.95$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.42	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	7c	600$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	14c	600$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	5c	599.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb07…3043backed Yes	18c	550$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa231…a91ebacked Yes	8c	532.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9c…c3a9backed Yes	4c	501.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	6c	500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	499.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	18c	499.97$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	3c	499.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe73…8b9cbacked Yes	4c	471.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239a…8e55backed Yes	4c	460.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	4c	425.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event