Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b77a30ededbfab3e38da081c51cf60c8558143bbd52ee3c14d262135666eaa

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $72,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	14,150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb45…952dbacked Yes	0c	7,027$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,038$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	1,789$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.27	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,702$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	7c	1,404$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.2	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	1,399$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.82	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a20…8c94backed Yes	1c	1,254$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	2c	1,086$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	3c	1,054$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.94	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	990.44$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	606.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	4c	514.92$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4040…1952backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	494.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…f863backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	5c	299.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	277.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event