Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4563afea534d46012ee60581c25bc096e8d9c8df5f999f3aebf237eec718fcd5

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $938,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $557,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $938,102 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	117,000$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	25,304$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.75	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	0c	19,388$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	12,410$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	12,012$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	10,500$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.5	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	8,121$1,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,257.9	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	7,603$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.91	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	10c	7,176$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.96	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	3c	7,116$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.86	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes	1c	5,075$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	2c	4,800$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,738$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.98	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	8c	3,862$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.7	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	3,517$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	6c	3,465$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.23	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	3,161$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.58	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	2c	3,160$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.51	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	1c	3,100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	8c	3,079$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.75	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	12c	3,068$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.5	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,028$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.89	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked Yes	12c	3,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,983$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	11c	2,776$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.3	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	14c	2,518$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.83	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	13c	2,518$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.16	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	3c	2,300$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	15c	2,024$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.91	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	7c	2,009$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	8c	2,000$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.12	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	13c	2,000$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.5	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	5c	1,972$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	8c	1,944$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.09	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	1c	1,907$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	6c	1,878$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.56	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	1,787$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.58	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	11c	1,733$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.6	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	10c	1,679$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.75	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	9c	1,629$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.16	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	6c	1,610$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	10c	1,500$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5be…8997backed Yes	14c	1,480$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.89	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	8c	1,392$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.66	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	13c	1,355$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.95	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	7c	1,336$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	9c	1,312$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.39	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	10c	1,200$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.3	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	7c	1,150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	1,150$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	7c	1,133$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.08	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	1,083$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.55	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	7c	1,048$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	10c	999.98$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.12	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	996.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	952.05$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	5c	919.62$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.74	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	11c	891.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.36	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	16c	890.21$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	10c	852.24$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.69	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes	12c	852.17$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.53	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	14c	721.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	14c	700.96$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.32	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	10c	700.22$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.45	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	699.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	12c	673.89$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.09	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	669.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x413d…49b9backed Yes	3c	650.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	5c	622.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.37	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	578$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.06	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	7c	560.74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	16c	550$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.9	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	548.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	7c	548.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	18c	545.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	7c	500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes	10c	499.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	13c	498.35$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	13c	498$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.88	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	490$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes	7c	474.45$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	7c	465.36$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	12c	450$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes	11c	442.92$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	14c	441.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.6	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	17c	430.69$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.51	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	11c	426.61$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	12c	412.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	15c	400$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	10c	398.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.23	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	7c	397.16$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event