TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5d6e…255a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NFL, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 59 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$233.21
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$528.85
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$159.99
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$445.93
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$86.29
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$416.44
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$404
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$64.48
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$542.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+41.9%+$437.61
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$533.36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$23.85
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+139.1%+$453.03
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$96.27
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$681Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$681.36
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$131.17
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$765Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+116.5%+$891.46
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$482.02
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick41cpaid+130.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+307.1%+$584.07
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+194.1%+$87.82
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+120.1%+$825.85
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+84.4%+$33
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$237.37
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+177.8%+$113.85
All 6 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+48.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$597Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+43.2%+$258.28
Flames vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+117.7%+$235.4
Utah vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+34.6%+$138.54
Islanders vs. Red Wingsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Avalanche vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$899Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+76.5%+$687.79
Golden Knights vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+120%+$468.01
All 6 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$62.6
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$255.06
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,502Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+30.3%+$455.3
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$22.06
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$155.52
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,581.56
All 6 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+597.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming (BO3)backed LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+579.4%+$576.83
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3)backed Oh My God · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+614.7%+$1,229.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+163.2%+$446.4
Will Sydney FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$262.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$104
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,237Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+26.6%+$328.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs illwill (BO3)backed illwill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$237.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $120 before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,808.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.