CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs illwill (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ccac5bfdbdf58a9a604225c7080f16b547bd64f7359564a610ff44fa2450777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed fnatic | 75c | 12,500$9,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,125 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed illwill | 24c | 3,501$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.46 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked illwill | 25c | 3,458$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.5 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…e2cebacked illwill | 8c | 3,059$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked illwill | 1c | 2,900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked illwill | 47c | 2,522$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed illwill | 3c | 2,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 77 | 6.5%5 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…68c9backed illwill | 69c | 1,946$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked illwill | 3c | 1,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +95%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…255abacked illwill | 18c | 1,353$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked illwill | 25c | 1,332$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed illwill | 36c | 1,069$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.3 | 211 | 37.4%79 W · 132 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked fnatic | 29c | 801.52$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.68 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…215fbacked fnatic | 69c | 737.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed illwill | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked illwill | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed illwill | 25c | 540$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked fnatic | 77c | 532.78$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed illwill | 25c | 498$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed fnatic | 45c | 444.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.67 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed illwill | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed illwill | 25c | 384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed illwill | 25c | 383.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked illwill | 23c | 343.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked illwill | 25c | 319.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…a9cabacked illwill | 24c | 280$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked fnatic | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed illwill | 8c | 213$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed illwill | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed fnatic | 42c | 188.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed illwill | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked fnatic | 78c | 146.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed fnatic | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed fnatic | 31c | 139.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +18.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed illwill | 13c | 125.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…7a59backed fnatic | 50c | 108.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed fnatic | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 186 | 57%106 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed illwill | 35c | 101.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed fnatic | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…c66cbacked fnatic | 75c | 96.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed illwill | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…22aabacked illwill | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…2ff0backed illwill | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed fnatic | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed illwill | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked fnatic | 28c | 43.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked fnatic | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked fnatic | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…d47dbacked fnatic | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 608 | 57.2%348 W · 260 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked fnatic | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed fnatic | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed fnatic | 76c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked fnatic | 80c | 15.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…b521backed fnatic | 75c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs illwill (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs illwill - Map 1 Winnerillwill won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.