TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,872,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,572,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,872,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes0c166,866$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.512343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-0.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…bab3backed Yes6c158,389$8,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,735.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes6c137,046$8,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,503.33200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes4c132,121$5,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,545.048815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3974…18a3backed Yes11c92,429$10,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,100.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c87,278$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.632920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes3c80,331$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c60,436$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.272560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes2c58,082$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes4c46,797$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes4c43,701$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.381526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c40,260$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.3319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes4c39,499$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.22283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c31,002$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.74474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes2c30,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4802615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd0…6259backed Yes1c26,933$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c26,716$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.43580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c24,982$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.951491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e7…4dc1backed Yes3c24,515$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868c…1d0cbacked Yes1c24,449$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes3c23,522$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.07244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0df…1b7dbacked Yes21c22,300$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,730.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes4c20,000$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.9710426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes2c18,528$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c18,508$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.846291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c18,504$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.132003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…c0b8backed Yes1c17,500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c17,181$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.517510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe747…bcacbacked Yes4c16,422$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes1c16,173$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.14721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c15,668$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes2c15,546$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes1c15,350$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e8…faeabacked Yes5c14,404$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.860%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d6…6dcdbacked Yes4c13,868$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0124…2070backed Yes3c13,688$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf2…4b85backed Yes2c13,301$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes3c12,391$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900a…416abacked Yes7c12,331$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6c…428ebacked Yes2c12,116$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb809…631abacked Yes6c11,884$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c11,823$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.981,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes3c11,658$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.073212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec3…f154backed Yes14c11,441$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c11,271$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0818311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes7c11,031$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.1205%1 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes11c10,809$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa91…a63abacked Yes1c10,159$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab5…c7a2backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6e…3eb4backed Yes1c9,418$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes18c9,406$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c8,913$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.81634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c8,537$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.772110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x964f…79a8backed Yes1c8,351$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…64cabacked Yes9c8,192$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…349abacked Yes1c7,767$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No79c7,660$6,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.021735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed Yes1c7,614$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes3c7,362$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…15dabacked Yes3c7,275$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb782…52eebacked Yes2c7,100$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c7,044$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5530127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…4934backed Yes3c6,978$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ab…a6fdbacked Yes7c6,882$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…0b33backed Yes1c6,782$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b2…383dbacked Yes1c6,762$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.57650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Yes24c6,619$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes2c6,407$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.52966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes3c6,356$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes5c6,243$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…a85ebacked Yes2c6,181$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c6,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c6,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5432228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes3c5,974$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.331729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a7…a095backed Yes2c5,936$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Yes1c5,925$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff21…4643backed Yes1c5,890$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbf…3f35backed Yes18c5,845$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes4c5,783$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.31816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes2c5,716$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9980%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb857…a6aabacked No77c5,700$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990b…01eebacked No79c5,700$4,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes2c5,695$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.693221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes3c5,654$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ace…7636backed Yes0c5,640$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5485…4378backed No79c5,600$4,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes13c5,310$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.5456.7%3 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc28d…15fbbacked No79c5,300$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+94.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes1c5,227$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes2c5,189$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.632317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa7…bb1cbacked Yes4c5,128$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…d361backed Yes2c5,101$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes25c5,092$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes13c5,000$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c5,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.51051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No77c4,871$3,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.345832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.