AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,872,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,572,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,872,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 0c | 166,866$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed Yes | 6c | 158,389$8,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,735.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 6c | 137,046$8,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,503.33 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 4c | 132,121$5,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,545.04 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…18a3backed Yes | 11c | 92,429$10,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,100.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 87,278$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 3c | 80,331$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 60,436$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.27 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 2c | 58,082$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 4c | 46,797$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 43,701$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 40,260$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.33 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 4c | 39,499$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.22 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 31,002$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.74 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…6259backed Yes | 1c | 26,933$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 26,716$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 24,982$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.95 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Yes | 3c | 24,515$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868c…1d0cbacked Yes | 1c | 24,449$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 3c | 23,522$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.07 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…1b7dbacked Yes | 21c | 22,300$4,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,730.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 18,528$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 18,508$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 18,504$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…c0b8backed Yes | 1c | 17,500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 17,181$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…bcacbacked Yes | 4c | 16,422$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 1c | 16,173$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 15,668$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.84 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 2c | 15,546$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.42 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 1c | 15,350$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…faeabacked Yes | 5c | 14,404$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…6dcdbacked Yes | 4c | 13,868$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…2070backed Yes | 3c | 13,688$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…4b85backed Yes | 2c | 13,301$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 3c | 12,391$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 7c | 12,331$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…428ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,116$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…631abacked Yes | 6c | 11,884$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 11,823$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.98 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 3c | 11,658$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.07 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…f154backed Yes | 14c | 11,441$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 11,271$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 7c | 11,031$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.1 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes | 11c | 10,809$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa91…a63abacked Yes | 1c | 10,159$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…c7a2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…3eb4backed Yes | 1c | 9,418$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 18c | 9,406$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 8,913$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 8,537$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.77 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…79a8backed Yes | 1c | 8,351$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…64cabacked Yes | 9c | 8,192$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…349abacked Yes | 1c | 7,767$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 79c | 7,660$6,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 1c | 7,614$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,362$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 3c | 7,275$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…52eebacked Yes | 2c | 7,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 7,044$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4934backed Yes | 3c | 6,978$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…a6fdbacked Yes | 7c | 6,882$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…0b33backed Yes | 1c | 6,782$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,762$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 24c | 6,619$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 2c | 6,407$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…255abacked Yes | 3c | 6,356$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 5c | 6,243$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…a85ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,181$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…62cabacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 3c | 5,974$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…a095backed Yes | 2c | 5,936$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,925$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…4643backed Yes | 1c | 5,890$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…3f35backed Yes | 18c | 5,845$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 4c | 5,783$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes | 2c | 5,716$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…a6aabacked No | 77c | 5,700$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…01eebacked No | 79c | 5,700$4,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 2c | 5,695$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 3c | 5,654$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…7636backed Yes | 0c | 5,640$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…4378backed No | 79c | 5,600$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 5,310$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.5 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…15fbbacked No | 79c | 5,300$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Yes | 1c | 5,227$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 2c | 5,189$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…bb1cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,128$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 2c | 5,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes | 25c | 5,092$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 77c | 4,871$3,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.34 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.