AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b16eb7741855ca3d4383fabb8b760c897c2165d603916497f484b87ba9826dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,158,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,876,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,419 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 1c | 376,028$4,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,531.47 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 16c | 105,010$16,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,744.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 13c | 96,410$12,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,338.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 13c | 84,972$11,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,387.64 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 22c | 73,668$16,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,103.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 12c | 70,002$8,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,264.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked No | 11c | 65,537$7,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,338.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Yes | 70c | 62,313$43,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,590.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 16c | 60,360$9,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,682.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 0c | 57,577$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 14c | 56,537$8,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,071.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 77c | 55,805$42,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,045.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…93a7backed No | 72c | 47,679$34,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,328.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…c10bbacked Yes | 28c | 47,679$13,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,328.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 74c | 40,755$30,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,482.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 15c | 40,003$6,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,133.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 74c | 37,695$27,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,911.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 5c | 37,011$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.99 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…f78ebacked No | 65c | 34,247$22,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,260.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…1d34backed Yes | 35c | 34,247$11,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,260.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…555fbacked No | 64c | 33,518$21,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,451.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa3…3199backed Yes | 36c | 33,518$12,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,451.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 8c | 33,476$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.19 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…590fbacked Yes | 80c | 32,894$26,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,616.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…6a94backed Yes | 36c | 32,616$11,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,874.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…49a9backed No | 64c | 32,616$20,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,874.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 79c | 32,272$25,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,703.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 12c | 31,911$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.14 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked No | 16c | 31,634$5,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 1c | 30,005$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 18c | 28,937$5,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,275.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…18a3backed No | 18c | 28,820$5,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,052.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 25,839$11,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,460.47 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes | 74c | 25,659$19,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,602.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 80c | 24,580$19,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,916 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked Yes | 49c | 22,354$11,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,315.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…d434backed Yes | 60c | 21,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 79c | 20,276$16,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 20,184$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked Yes | 70c | 18,399$12,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,490.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked No | 13c | 18,063$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 11c | 17,594$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.38 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…3088backed Yes | 62c | 17,200$10,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,575.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…77c1backed Yes | 79c | 16,938$13,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 15,779$3,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.33 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…a95dbacked Yes | 69c | 15,022$10,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…444ebacked No | 5c | 15,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…7314backed Yes | 79c | 14,778$11,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddd…9407backed Yes | 78c | 14,391$11,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 13c | 14,268$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.6 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 14,233$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.99 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 79c | 14,177$11,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…a290backed Yes | 78c | 13,881$10,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 0c | 13,784$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…7c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 13,398$10,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…7001backed Yes | 41c | 13,334$5,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,820.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…641abacked No | 1c | 12,740$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…18d2backed Yes | 71c | 12,713$9,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,665.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked No | 4c | 12,660$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…7b99backed Yes | 62c | 11,985$7,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,495.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 24c | 11,893$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,079.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…9817backed Yes | 79c | 11,633$9,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 64c | 11,263$7,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,051.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 38c | 10,998$4,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,783.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed No | 10c | 10,832$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…29bfbacked Yes | 78c | 10,523$8,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…737bbacked No | 1c | 10,339$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 19c | 10,041$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.7 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…a660backed No | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 70c | 9,551$6,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed Yes | 73c | 9,476$6,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 13c | 9,231$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.49 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…2adabacked Yes | 56c | 9,115$5,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,990.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 10c | 9,024$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 9,024$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.93 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…ce63backed No | 7c | 8,823$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked No | 7c | 8,707$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…92bebacked Yes | 72c | 8,645$6,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 80c | 8,514$6,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed Yes | 79c | 8,508$6,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…8223backed Yes | 77c | 8,499$6,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 12c | 8,495$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 8,376$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.71 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed No | 11c | 8,271$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.57 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…fb63backed No | 4c | 8,231$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 32c | 7,932$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,365.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…7b43backed No | 6c | 7,900$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…2631backed No | 2c | 7,883$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…ba10backed Yes | 63c | 7,848$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes | 79c | 7,703$6,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…1506backed Yes | 72c | 7,590$5,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked No | 25c | 7,500$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 7,435$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.64 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…7de4backed Yes | 62c | 7,237$4,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…fa4ebacked No | 10c | 7,148$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 16c | 7,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.99 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 26c | 6,963$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…8a2dbacked Yes | 76c | 6,947$5,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…180ebacked Yes | 73c | 6,895$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.