AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a542fe246448e58671948b2f28bb746d7694172ad3c57b28d5cf86126834cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,197,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,950,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,197,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 259,591$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.59 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 240,536$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.18 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 6c | 127,670$7,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,606.19 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…05acbacked Yes | 0c | 105,388$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…55ffbacked Yes | 1c | 83,203$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…5581backed Yes | 0c | 48,833$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…4643backed Yes | 0c | 47,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 40,972$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 4c | 32,023$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.2 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…8240backed No | 64c | 30,217$19,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,878.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…fa5ebacked Yes | 36c | 30,217$10,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,878.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df9…be65backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…62b4backed Yes | 40c | 27,517$11,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,006.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…57d4backed No | 60c | 27,517$16,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,006.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,307$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 25,975$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.6 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 24,053$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 23,140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 22,830$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.9 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 11c | 20,977$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.04 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…8931backed Yes | 6c | 20,422$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 4c | 20,197$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…98f2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…da44backed Yes | 1c | 19,845$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed Yes | 0c | 18,915$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 1c | 18,887$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…6895backed Yes | 0c | 18,495$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…737bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c8…0b4bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,932$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…3521backed Yes | 0c | 16,751$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…14ccbacked Yes | 0c | 15,511$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 14,773$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.84 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…9f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…2443backed Yes | 0c | 13,293$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…f054backed Yes | 0c | 13,287$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…4cf5backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 36c | 12,163$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,052$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…7d57backed Yes | 1c | 11,735$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 1c | 11,393$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…b1afbacked Yes | 0c | 11,086$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…9d0ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,672$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…5cf6backed Yes | 0c | 10,672$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…ad3bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…6debbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808b…c35ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…043cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,739$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…09c7backed Yes | 1c | 8,515$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…9ce4backed Yes | 2c | 8,500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 1c | 8,434$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…c593backed Yes | 0c | 8,320$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…5d32backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d484backed Yes | 15c | 7,820$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…a303backed Yes | 1c | 7,647$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…6321backed Yes | 1c | 7,600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…3a19backed Yes | 0c | 7,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…eb5cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,060$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b8…0631backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…3b06backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 2c | 6,824$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 6,656$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 6,387$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.1 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 16c | 6,306$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…621cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,959$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 20c | 5,923$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes | 39c | 5,320$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…2759backed Yes | 0c | 5,218$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 35c | 5,195$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…03d4backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…fb70backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 1c | 4,894$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…b0ffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,534$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,531$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Yes | 1c | 4,510$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…4442backed Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…7b7abacked Yes | 10c | 4,074$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…6a56backed Yes | 2c | 3,856$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes | 1c | 3,847$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed Yes | 1c | 3,792$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,718$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,640$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,520$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,456$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 21c | 3,408$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c8b1backed Yes | 2c | 3,281$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…9228backed Yes | 0c | 3,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 1c | 3,110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4275…6da8backed Yes | 1c | 3,037$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…53bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,860$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,830$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.