TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x60fd…1d52

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 62 out of 100; worst Music at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2025, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump approval >45% on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$90
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+100%+$48.31
Trump negative approval before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+44.6%+$252.45
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,416Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+37.4%+$903.53
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$258.73
Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$807Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$806.73
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$14.2
Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$8,288Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+91.9%+$7,612.18
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,247Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$4,247.09
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,593Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,592.74
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,834Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+73%+$2,798.41
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$70.27
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$529.33
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,132.09
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$211.45
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$453.42
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$920.14
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$60
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$720.05
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$522.03
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$455.1
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$136.35
All 22 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$695.48
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,037.92
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$4,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$4,332.06
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+400%+$440
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$382.89
DeepSeek R2 released before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,956Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,955.78
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.81
Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$358.38
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$499.85
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$368.18
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+2,212.2%+$4,276.77
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,183.84
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+42.9%+$478.2
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$560.9
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$274.76
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Grok still be #1 Free app next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+49.9%+$186.26
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+103.1%+$2,177.96
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2024, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+109.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$11.85
Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+1,235.9%+$1,143.44
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+178.6%+$123.71
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST+33.3%+$100
Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$78.42
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+569.9%+$293.49
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.92
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT+62.6%+$343
Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$43.8
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.19
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+47.1%+$96
Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$67.93
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,498.06
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,005.1
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+48.4%+$968.3
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,798Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$538.22
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$16.1
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$30.6
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+52.6%+$316.75
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$22.64
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$4,607Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$4,607.31
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick45cpaid+208.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+237.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+160%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$597.8
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$807Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+80.8%+$651.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$113.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+917.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+917.7%+$829.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14,843Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+123.7%+$18,356.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+74.8%+$73.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$171.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$61.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$143.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.