TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

DeepSeek R2 released before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e26…32a8backed No63c23,211$14,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,588.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x179b…4398backed Yes37c23,211$8,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,588.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2c…ec5abacked No47c21,910$10,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,612.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1d…f405backed Yes53c21,910$11,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,612.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed Yes13c7,680$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…e853backed No70c6,238$4,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes62c4,731$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.781833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No37c4,371$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No59c4,254$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.413240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No47c4,086$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+97.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x640b…d7a5backed No22c2,675$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+344.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes47c2,617$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.852528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No36c2,614$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.472846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes49c2,519$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8990…bc80backed No49c2,291$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7121…afd2backed Yes12c1,984$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.58714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+77.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes35c1,812$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.812626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed Yes62c1,761$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes48c1,630$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.86041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No46c1,552$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.5945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No58c1,516$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.92142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c1,175$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.5225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No37c976.77$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd814…9346backed Yes50c965.71$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No19c950.38$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.26011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9925…baa3backed No54c881.21$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes8c870.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.759915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddd…76b2backed No67c844.52$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No47c746.67$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.071338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes70c680.2$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x659d…a037backed Yes23c624$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.24613%6 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes42c600$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No47c576.61$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed No62c500$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3204818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No79c496.1$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.334353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed Yes49c438.81$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd7…600dbacked No34c425.84$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes50c422.68$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No12c421$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.634522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes61c419.08$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.242626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes74c403.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5413…7306backed Yes5c402.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes68c401$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes44c385$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7412839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4508…9134backed Yes27c375.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No62c375.48$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.992766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked No40c361$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No54c342.84$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2318544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No71c317.76$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.142245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No59c306.6$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.677337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1743429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb171…b363backed Yes66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea4…73c2backed No34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes8c290.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No43c276.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.626338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes13c270.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4619834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes70c259.4$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.678644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c256.19$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.841,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c255.38$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9747938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes73c255.18$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes49c243.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.254045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed No25c237.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-51.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes22c230.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.79714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3258…196cbacked No67c228.53$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes48c223.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.351540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…a2b0backed No31c219.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes41c219.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.325060%30 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed Yes56c209.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c207.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.928828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No30c199.46$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.741723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2290…80bebacked Yes72c198.71$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.061250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c196.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes66c196$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.351957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c167.86$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.972935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c157.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedd3…e9c6backed Yes61c154.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d51…f316backed Yes22c149.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a7…29e2backed No15c147.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+569.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes9c146$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed Yes56c145$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.054032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No75c141.47$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No64c139.56$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No67c136.36$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No14c125.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7910338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes49c121$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.281136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No14c120.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7090…0414backed Yes53c116.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+80.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes14c114.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed No17c114.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid+16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6385…cdf1backed No58c112.92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4815…a1afbacked No45c111.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0e…f8febacked Yes29c110.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e55…2b2abacked No31c109.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked No78c107$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No19c105.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.41450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+120.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…e07bbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.