TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8797…bbbe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
296
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Movies, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 61 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT4452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.59
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$42.92
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$17.69
Will Ralph Norman win the SC Republican Senate special primary by less than 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$42.13
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.22
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.53
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$48.61
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+31%+$10.88
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+67%+$16.45
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+114.1%+$81
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.69
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.73
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$232.54
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$390.1
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.22
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.23
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$17.93
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$19
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$91.37
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,813Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$1,603.81
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.24
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.37
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$62.63
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$41.25
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT4032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$598.59
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$608.14
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+176.6%+$622.6
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$765.15
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$939Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$938.94
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.36
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.78
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$204.37
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$932Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+39.7%+$370.1
Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$71.14
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,367Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+64.6%+$2,819.18
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$921Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.3%+$573.45
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,097Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.7%+$706.14
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$244.05
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.87
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$122.89
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$193.36
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,037Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,037.14
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,328.6%+$465
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,083.6
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$187.6
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$52.25
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$126
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,570Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$1,171.13
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST3920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$860.41
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+40.8%+$88.45
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+2,147%+$2,136.81
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$376.39
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+33.2%+$547.92
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$831Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$831.2
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+203%+$217.75
Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$63.35
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$59.3
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$108.59
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$178.12
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$47.77
Will the US loose jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$146.19
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+165.3%+$563.89
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.3
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$607
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.6
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% or more in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.13
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$732.11
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+145.9%+$599.23
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.72
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$185.2
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.95
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.02
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$29.93
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14,523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,523.27
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.2
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$113.19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+71.2%+$293.86
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300.01
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$921Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$921.19
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+53.2%+$90.79
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$305.46
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$525.01
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,067.81
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.45
EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.7
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.67
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.73
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,208Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+86%+$1,038.33
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+674%+$326.55
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+336.9%+$97.93
Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$508Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+62.2%+$315.86
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.95
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.7
Will Trump say "Israel" 5+ times during his February 4 press conference with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+33.6%+$124.63
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,554Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$2,554.4
All 24 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT2268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+120.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$31.54
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.56
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.4
Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+150%+$290.1
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+69.8%+$208.36
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$636.04
Will Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$102.72
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+124.2%+$110.8
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+158.6%+$210.98
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$49.95
Will Emily Blunt be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37.6%+$152.48
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$192.92
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will Sinners win Best Hair and Makeup at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will One Battle After Another win Best Editing at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$56.79
Will Ted Danson win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+26%+$9
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+76.5%+$13
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+106.5%+$64.22
Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$37.22
Will "Rental Family" score at least 93 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+50.1%+$68.43
"One Battle After Another" Rotten Tomatoes score is 95 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+1,344.9%+$356.49
"One Battle After Another" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 94?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.47
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$142
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.02
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.59
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.92
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+694.9%+$201.94
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.25
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,670Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+128.2%+$4,702.87
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+1,037.2%+$1,177.31
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,770Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,770.12
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.02
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.7
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.17
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$241.92
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$527.62
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+42.7%+$115.16
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$51.6
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+59.7%+$251.05
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$416.4
Will Keir Starmer say "Healthcare" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+71.3%+$186.47
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+98%+$174.2
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+276.2%+$643.15
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+207%+$1,219.16
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.04
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,920Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+114.2%+$6,762.77
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.66
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10,256Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+65.6%+$6,724.01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$803Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$558.36
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20,038Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19,254.59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11,001Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+107.6%+$11,839.29
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.24
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.61
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.49
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.51
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$61.57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13,910Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+32%+$4,456.11
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$257.5
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.08
All 18 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tua Tagovailoa traded by next season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.71
Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$34.64
Will Tua Tagovailoa play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+114.6%+$78.05
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$212.76
Will Super Bowl LX have less than 116M viewers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$117.93
Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$115.55
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$27.82
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$435.44
Will Buffalo face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+33.3%+$63.25
Spread: Bills (-4.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$248.92
Spread: Bills (-6.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$325
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$435.74
Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$107.85
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$199.75
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$31.6
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$73.71
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.78
Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$85.92
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$100.72
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$6.76
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+87.7%+$102.08
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37.2%+$66.68
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$120
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.46
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.57
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$370.12
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$97.16
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$268.47
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.24
DeepSeek R2 released before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+56.7%+$50.51
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+333.9%+$1,175.94
All 13 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.38per pick24cpaid+102.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,421Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+432.4%+$6,144
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,348Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+289.3%+$3,900.96
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+166.1%+$3,858.15
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,268Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+173.8%+$3,941.15
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+61.3%+$1,996.94
Will Jake Paul walk out to Something Different by Why Don’t We?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$61.01
Will Jake Paul walk out to In the Air Tonight by Phil Collins?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23.21
Will Jake Paul walk out to 23 by Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$54.91
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+57%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.57
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$516.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+93.2%+$1,097.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 319?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,216Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$321.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$328.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$468.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.