Earnings · resolved market
Will Reddit say "Smartly" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33e40ede35d13f4308c057ca8d2af306cccd6455bf9523c759288ce903730fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb885…2acfbacked Yes | 10c | 8,618$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,756.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 71c | 280$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…63e2backed No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…eac0backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed No | 40c | 126.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…b8f0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 38c | 65.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…74bdbacked Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f6…dbf6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reddit say "Smartly" during earnings call?this page
- Will Reddit say "Algorithm" during earnings call?No won
- Will Reddit say "Machine Translation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Reddit say "Reddit Pro" 3+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Reddit say "Traffic" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.