Earnings · resolved market
Will anyone say "Project Kuiper" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d926106650a511a7467e9d57367ecd32521c64ec1fc0b03c42e3369fcc6599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 76c | 870.34$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 25c | 555$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 75c | 320$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 21c | 294$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked No | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 75c | 235$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 8c | 217.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 80c | 45.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Project Kuiper" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?this page
- Will anyone say "Advertising" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Alexa Plus" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Grocery" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?No won
- Will anyone say "Operating Margin" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Robotics" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Supply Chain" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?No won
- Will anyone say "Third-Party Sellers" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.