World Politics · resolved market
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2435331e93fc07363940be332ecc54042da8d8d4c7dc96a785c6769e1ad5d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 2c | 4,452$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,313$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 994.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…a792backed Yes | 54c | 958.02$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 6c | 891.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 859.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 839.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 7c | 664.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 574.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 423$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked No | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 187.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 43c | 162.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 25c | 160.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 18c | 156$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 127.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…9ad4backed No | 43c | 70.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 50c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf14…cd0abacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?this page
- Will Carsten Linnemann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?No won
- Will Nina Warken be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.