Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9815e0f5366ba28dcef3fda0b4e9aed68286846781d2ed1444db334f97cb19d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b1b…0357backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…5359backed Yes | 0c | 9,256$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 9,123$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…cf8abacked Yes | 3c | 7,287$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a63…6118backed Yes | 66c | 7,061$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 5c | 5,015$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,721$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…ba75backed Yes | 24c | 2,660$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 18c | 2,332$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 18cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 74c | 2,142$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.52 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5079backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 5c | 1,843$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 12c | 1,778$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,556$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…4a00backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…49e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,401$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 16c | 1,374$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…3f0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,274$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 1c | 1,196$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…1712backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 28c | 1,064$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…9c64backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 963.32$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…5975backed Yes | 41c | 956.33$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 13c | 953.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 17c | 924.41$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ba…a824backed Yes | 22c | 909.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 29c | 869.97$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…611abacked Yes | 20c | 846.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 2c | 824.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…3017backed Yes | 37c | 814.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 813.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ee…99c9backed Yes | 4c | 770$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 38c | 767.89$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…d494backed Yes | 3c | 739.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…d068backed Yes | 4c | 701.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16f…8e26backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…8c11backed Yes | 23c | 682.34$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 4c | 673.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 664.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 648.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 57c | 595.49$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked Yes | 17c | 591.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed No | 57c | 586.78$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Yes | 3c | 560$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 34c | 545.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…e37bbacked Yes | 35c | 542.08$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd775…7706backed Yes | 3c | 532.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…37bcbacked Yes | 44c | 514.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes | 30c | 510.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes | 17c | 504.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…416fbacked Yes | 17c | 466.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…346bbacked Yes | 30c | 465.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…1453backed Yes | 23c | 426.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…1f38backed Yes | 24c | 412.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…1533backed Yes | 25c | 407.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…3526backed Yes | 31c | 399.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 399.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 28c | 398.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…5614backed Yes | 63c | 380.68$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 16c | 368.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…329dbacked Yes | 24c | 350.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 45c | 345.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 344.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…f333backed Yes | 14c | 328.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 324.59$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…4511backed No | 73c | 306.61$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 19c | 300.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 74c | 299.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 295.72$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…a3c9backed Yes | 15c | 281.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6253backed Yes | 18c | 279.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…86e9backed Yes | 28c | 276.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…50bdbacked Yes | 12c | 271.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…062abacked Yes | 17c | 261.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…5201backed No | 77c | 257.1$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…4728backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…9dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 229.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 220.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…df87backed Yes | 30c | 217.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…4323backed Yes | 23c | 213.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 29c | 209.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 18c | 199.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…9be0backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d5b4backed Yes | 27c | 185.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…e794backed Yes | 6c | 182.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcf3backed Yes | 23c | 175.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked No | 65c | 162.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504a…20debacked Yes | 25c | 160.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…f7cabacked Yes | 19c | 157.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 157.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3d3ebacked Yes | 32c | 157.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.