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Weather · resolved market

Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbc8…cf55backed No5c9,528$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed No10c6,361$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c0…d9ffbacked No2c4,627$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes61c4,230$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.86650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes48c3,887$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.95425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes72c3,625$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-80%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed No13c2,885$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No5c2,610$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.94938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a63…6118backed Yes24c2,342$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+109.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No5c1,852$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4222…cf8abacked No12c1,694$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No18c1,595$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.961136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed No60c1,491$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x619f…32e9backed No17c1,481$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed2…bb52backed No3c1,480$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,461$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21520%0 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No4c1,385$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes48c1,374$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.73933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes22c1,344$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes78c1,332$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4c…8ba8backed No2c1,296$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No20c1,200$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.141216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes53c1,153$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c1,143$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.8217243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…a2b3backed No13c1,129$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes74c1,078$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.58333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe477…1453backed Yes28c1,065$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.92425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes53c1,009$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.397065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02bd…3c32backed Yes20c999.23$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.735543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52f…30fabacked Yes61c950.26$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed No12c930.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…611abacked Yes15c904.07$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40d…e3acbacked No24c900$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70dd…a4e3backed No3c857.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…3b7fbacked No67c853.06$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.4320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c852.17$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.413,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No12c799.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes23c782.99$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8158…9b77backed No1c738.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c8…f5dcbacked No3c728.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes65c714.52$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.159233.7%31 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12dd…db99backed Yes71c668.03$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes79c627.14$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.59366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes38c619.98$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes51c600.14$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No39c595.64$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.161,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…d511backed Yes22c579.95$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed No19c559.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No54c513.82$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…68b8backed No4c512.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099a…e433backed Yes20c511.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+70.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a54…ba75backed No40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x732d…3526backed Yes33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No72c488.96$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.0784759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8d…1364backed Yes72c485.17$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c483.25$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.762,83711.2%317 W · 2,520 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c8…86e9backed Yes45c469.8$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.56333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da6…d111backed No13c453.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf3b…d82fbacked No12c445.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecb4…346bbacked Yes22c443.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7a…416fbacked Yes29c428.4$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes47c427.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.662437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6800…587bbacked Yes24c418.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+109.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes14c418.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa318…dc29backed No12c415.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c403.91$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.542,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked No13c402.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b1…329dbacked Yes35c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked No23c399.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No72c381.69$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.955974.6%44 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3662…ca07backed Yes16c373.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed No14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes75c350$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16f…8e26backed Yes36c350$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No78c347.12$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.175444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes21c342.48$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed No14c337.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0536…a3c9backed Yes15c320$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.55728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed No32c316.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Yes32c309.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked No70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd966…0006backed No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa252…dbf4backed Yes73c300$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes74c300$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.53652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes25c296.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.157255.6%40 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34d1…525dbacked Yes23c287.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdd…8dbbbacked No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes55c275.48$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c274.72$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3415818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x280d…47a9backed No13c269.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1746…5614backed Yes58c266.9$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9869…e753backed Yes78c261.68$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…3bdbbacked Yes14c250.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef4…e7c0backed Yes12c250$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No19c249.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6132133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes14c239.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked No55c239.17$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b72…124fbacked Yes20c233.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.02560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+158.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes45c233.64$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.642740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.