Weather · resolved market
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b78226f1011bee100b64a2450a9bca67a3358706d975c2aada89f17038addd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4222…cf8abacked Yes | 0c | 17,617$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…5359backed Yes | 0c | 9,095$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 8,978$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…1327backed Yes | 4c | 4,736$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…8da0backed Yes | 7c | 3,741$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,620$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 1c | 2,792$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…ac11backed Yes | 20c | 1,478$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 984.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 745.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…dd84backed Yes | 4c | 681.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fd…38a0backed Yes | 3c | 676.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Yes | 3c | 658.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 3c | 633.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…bb99backed Yes | 2c | 614.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 503.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 5c | 491.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 436.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…e7c0backed Yes | 16c | 434.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…3656backed Yes | 7c | 415.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 11c | 414.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 405.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 380.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…416fbacked Yes | 9c | 324.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f5…da81backed Yes | 6c | 313.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810e…97b5backed Yes | 7c | 299.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…9974backed Yes | 5c | 291.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…4255backed Yes | 8c | 289.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…4206backed Yes | 5c | 286.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…bc1bbacked Yes | 7c | 273.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 6c | 260.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…ae99backed Yes | 10c | 230.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 6c | 230.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 209.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 11c | 204.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…c103backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad93…3790backed Yes | 9c | 172.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504a…20debacked Yes | 24c | 168.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b6…57f2backed Yes | 13c | 158.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 112.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab0…504ebacked Yes | 12c | 100.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…df87backed Yes | 49c | 55.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.