TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4222…cf8abacked Yes0c12,839$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,880$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eba…5359backed Yes0c8,686$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes2c2,988$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8674926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66dc…5754backed Yes11c2,138$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e4…8da0backed Yes11c2,007$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9912125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd148…1327backed Yes7c1,855$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes9c1,725$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes3c1,707$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes9c1,684$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6750%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa56b…b7b9backed Yes1c1,407$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes2c1,374$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.48933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…611abacked Yes10c1,321$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7a…416fbacked Yes3c1,028$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes4c1,009$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes15c865.83$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Yes12c846.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af2…7a8abacked Yes10c754.91$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c613.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.29262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x02bd…3c32backed Yes7c510.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.145543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes13c476.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c465.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0439810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb4…346bbacked Yes14c440.95$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c434.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3315818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6552…eb72backed Yes12c403.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c399.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8d…da9dbacked Yes9c392.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504a…20debacked Yes26c366.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c362.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.632,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes6c354.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3662…ca07backed Yes8c351.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c308.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9243713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes4c305.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.167065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c230.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.07812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3a…00e0backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2d…25febacked Yes14c213.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes16c209$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f5…da81backed Yes10c207.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes15c206.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes9c201.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b24…9974backed Yes10c200.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Yes20c200.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed Yes7c199.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.962040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes29c174.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74f…57f6backed Yes18c168.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0a…1d3bbacked Yes9c168.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34dc…d5e6backed Yes12c167.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes14c159.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes10c156.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2726834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…4206backed Yes10c153.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c152.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16432.3%1 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad93…3790backed Yes10c150.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-26.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9fa…222bbacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fd…38a0backed Yes14c145$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No71c144.34$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.866440.6%26 W · 38 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x810e…97b5backed Yes14c143.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a21…d349backed Yes15c137.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3952…cc41backed Yes16c127.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8035…8d43backed Yes16c126.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c126.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1850…112cbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes11c120.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes19c117.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes13c114.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1a…e0eebacked Yes13c114.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+145.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed Yes12c112.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8979…bcf3backed Yes18c110.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c106.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b5…b658backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12dd…db99backed Yes12c95.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes14c94.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00d…2416backed Yes17c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes28c88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.645349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b5…f9c0backed Yes22c86.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bf…df87backed Yes28c86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes13c82.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.772429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de7…8be8backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No71c79.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.83652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…2113backed Yes26c74.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…34e1backed No80c58.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…cf43backed Yes29c48.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4dd…0a5fbacked Yes31c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…9f20backed Yes44c35.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9091…7557backed No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.