TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes16c10,131$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.86425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…2d9dbacked Yes0c5,142$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes33c5,074$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.26650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4222…cf8abacked Yes6c4,624$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes14c3,201$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970a…2d78backed No78c2,962$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c0…d9ffbacked Yes0c2,901$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef4…e7c0backed Yes3c2,575$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes62c1,950$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes23c1,906$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-80%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No78c1,845$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.9317243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes3c1,828$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes18c1,789$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d39…b7afbacked Yes6c1,674$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes17c1,595$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.76333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes19c1,500$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes23c1,374$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.85933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed Yes19c1,292$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes20c1,288$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes14c1,200$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Yes22c1,144$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes6c1,131$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cb…de61backed Yes11c1,114$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes7c1,088$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes6c1,029$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes9c1,006$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…ba75backed Yes16c976.09$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1919…351cbacked Yes21c973.05$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed Yes5c915.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…3526backed Yes17c899.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes10c847.33$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ec…7631backed Yes22c800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes9c794.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…fbbdbacked Yes1c790.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes16c790.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.911136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fd…4d36backed No74c764.82$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes5c763$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.151735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No16c735.31$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.453450%17 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes14c721.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.191,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099a…e433backed Yes7c703.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+70.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0536…a3c9backed Yes15c695.15$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.34728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes24c681.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x000a…611abacked Yes11c663.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d6…1603backed Yes5c629.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes9c613.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.079233.7%31 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a9…af9dbacked Yes3c601.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes17c598.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.645453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d66…88e4backed Yes5c597.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd775…7706backed Yes6c550$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…d511backed Yes29c546.9$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No80c545.39$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.463652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6d…0846backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce7…b8fcbacked No79c499.99$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Yes10c496.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes41c489.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes4c482.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfad1…32cdbacked Yes2c479.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f24…a1b9backed Yes4c475.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d1…525dbacked Yes20c472.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6800…587bbacked Yes22c446.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+109.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x836b…9f33backed Yes22c444.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes6c436.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5915027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes21c425.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes32c419.4$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No78c412.61$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.77560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No77c412.25$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes18c409.89$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…416fbacked Yes22c406.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes29c406.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.941833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf55…f333backed Yes12c405.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4fd…b717backed Yes49c400$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x375d…e3c0backed Yes10c399.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7f…83c8backed Yes7c388.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e54…0b5ebacked Yes4c382$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c381.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.749262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes37c380$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x365b…9c42backed Yes23c379.17$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe477…1453backed Yes27c370.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes37c366.94$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes11c358.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes11c354.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…3b7fbacked Yes42c349.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c74…e9b7backed Yes23c349$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes20c348$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c347.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.252,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9389…711cbacked Yes7c344.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes6c337.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.222050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bd…3c32backed Yes20c324.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.625543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36fb…c1d8backed Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes11c304.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d02…d56fbacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c18…5079backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8143713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes18c299.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…dac9backed Yes7c291.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307b…8bdabacked Yes17c287.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.