Weather · resolved market
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bdca009240266294d62a899a68fc32045b8ffad5022724ac66cb241ccb64b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 13c | 12,094$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 8,927$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 8c | 7,614$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,390$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,623$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Yes | 8c | 6,142$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…cf8abacked Yes | 2c | 5,011$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 1c | 4,283$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…ba75backed Yes | 17c | 3,304$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…2d78backed No | 78c | 3,204$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 6c | 3,192$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…0846backed Yes | 1c | 3,124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 19c | 2,950$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Yes | 4c | 2,937$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,901$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed No | 78c | 2,640$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 8c | 2,512$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 21c | 2,500$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…351cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,251$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,897$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…37d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,891$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…bb52backed Yes | 1c | 1,831$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…2d62backed Yes | 33c | 1,690$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 68c | 1,537$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…cb18backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 9c | 1,374$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,317$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…34e1backed No | 79c | 1,287$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a9…af9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…5ce3backed Yes | 4c | 1,079$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…599fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…4511backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 997.52$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…49e7backed Yes | 6c | 989.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed No | 67c | 894.78$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 3c | 878.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 874.17$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…3526backed Yes | 22c | 849.88$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 847.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…792bbacked Yes | 2c | 834.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 79c | 799.98$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 15c | 796.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 18c | 788.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…e031backed Yes | 45c | 776.09$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…0ac3backed Yes | 2c | 768.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…757fbacked Yes | 26c | 759.55$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…98c1backed Yes | 7c | 740.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…b717backed Yes | 20c | 700$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…6c58backed Yes | 10c | 633.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked Yes | 9c | 606.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 18c | 600$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…6303backed Yes | 3c | 577.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 79c | 559.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…d511backed Yes | 23c | 556.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 14c | 555.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…207dbacked No | 80c | 501.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…1e5abacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 79c | 477.76$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…e9b7backed Yes | 22c | 435.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 80c | 432.87$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…1453backed Yes | 20c | 401.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…d16fbacked Yes | 12c | 376.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 11c | 370$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…3866backed Yes | 21c | 365.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…ae99backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 17c | 314.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…5754backed Yes | 17c | 300.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed77…d9d0backed Yes | 22c | 299.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 22c | 295.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 80c | 290$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 16c | 266.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…a3c9backed Yes | 9c | 256.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…e583backed Yes | 16c | 248.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…611abacked Yes | 18c | 247.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 15c | 245.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 5c | 239.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 29c | 238.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…4145backed Yes | 13c | 230.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 25c | 230.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 227.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 21c | 225$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…8838backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 28c | 211.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 209.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 12c | 201$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…8349backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…8bdabacked Yes | 27c | 197.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…e02ebacked Yes | 17c | 196.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…9a42backed Yes | 20c | 193.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 20c | 188.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 188.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 19c | 188.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.