TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa52f…8897

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Sharksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Flames vs. Avalanchebacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.16
Stars vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$382.88
Predators vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$417
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Capitals vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.87
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Sharks vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$576.9
Devils vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Penguins vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Wild vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$276.92
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+136.1%+$544.44
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Senators vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$467.56
Sharks vs. Senatorsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Maple Leafs vs. Sabresbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.63
Oilers vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+121.3%+$364.04
Blues vs. Hurricanesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$388.24
Flames vs. Devilsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$260.99
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$531.33
Islanders vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.64
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.11
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$305.81
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.69
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+121.1%+$181.72
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+268.3%+$299.52
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30.43
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$137.71
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+73%+$165.28
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$99.99
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$86.21
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$132.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$54.6
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$392.05
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+85.6%+$427.78
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$1,843.75
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+1,022%+$1,025.36
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$318.17
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$171.86
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$2,001.43
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,184.33
Bulls vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$81.38
Suns vs. Celticsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$478Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$477.53
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+139.4%+$697.05
All 6 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+87.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+181.3%+$536.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$157.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.