Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f828d672dfdbc2e4e5429b78ef81fc3c059b8bc9ec60a5ef1615f5e1e4108d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,187 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 5c | 1,600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 795.58$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 666.56$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed No | 4c | 533.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 497.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 490.56$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 4c | 458.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac1…d96abacked No | 54c | 434$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 432.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes | 31c | 397.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 391.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 11c | 390.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 37c | 368.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 45c | 331.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 38c | 301.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 63c | 269.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 249.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 228$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 61c | 194.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…bb5bbacked Yes | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 60c | 168.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…179dbacked Yes | 43c | 157$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 34c | 155.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 150.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 62c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 33c | 149.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…29e7backed Yes | 44c | 148$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 40c | 146.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 39c | 140.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 140.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 138.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 68c | 136.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 37c | 132.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 34c | 129.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 78c | 126.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 20c | 126.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 31c | 113.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed No | 10c | 108.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 107.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 103.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 36c | 102.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 65c | 102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…07f0backed Yes | 49c | 100.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…0a5cbacked Yes | 51c | 97.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 53c | 94.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 94.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 40c | 93.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes | 34c | 88.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 86.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 82.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 67c | 80.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 79.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…8510backed Yes | 69c | 79.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 43c | 77.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e727backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…fd54backed Yes | 68c | 71.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 67.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 29c | 65.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…be7fbacked Yes | 70c | 65.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 64.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 66c | 64.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 40c | 63.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…07eebacked Yes | 31c | 63.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1f…2382backed No | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…8f67backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 50c | 59.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…a0ccbacked No | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 27c | 57.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 40c | 55.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…dfedbacked Yes | 35c | 53.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…d958backed Yes | 38c | 51.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 77c | 50.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…7562backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.