TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,187 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x97eb…9fbebacked No5c1,600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8129922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No58c795.58$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c666.56$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.496,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f7c…1558backed No4c533.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No3c499.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c497.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c490.56$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No4c458.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ac1…d96abacked No54c434$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No13c432.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3258422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes31c397.53$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No15c391.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33b6…597bbacked No11c390.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.29267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No37c368.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.041,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes45c331.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.721631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes38c301.09$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.851540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes63c269.86$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes30c249.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No71c228$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6431868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No61c194.49$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No52c192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7754143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd79…bb5bbacked Yes47c169$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8112…dfb4backed Yes60c168.26$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.261553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3f…179dbacked Yes43c157$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No34c155.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c150.35$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.053,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked Yes66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes62c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.619426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed No33c149.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108b…29e7backed Yes44c148$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes40c146.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes39c140.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3411337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c140.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c138.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes68c136.42$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2560851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes37c132.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.267823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes76c131$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3135465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes34c129.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9735018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes78c126.55$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes20c126.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.549429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes31c113.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.063333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed No10c108.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.617231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c107.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes39c103.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes36c102.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9317338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365a…6120backed Yes65c102$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f44…07f0backed Yes49c100.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.97633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7011835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5840438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x514f…2be0backed No45c99.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.995151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb41…0a5cbacked Yes51c97.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed No53c94.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c94.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked No40c93.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.524652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes34c88.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.311050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No58c87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4616355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes37c86.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6332352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No70c82.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes39c82.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.055141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes67c80.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.91,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c79.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df6…8510backed Yes69c79.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.59875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+111.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes43c77.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.021546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda54…e727backed No53c72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2b…fd54backed Yes68c71.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No59c67.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.068160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes29c65.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.662718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8544…be7fbacked Yes70c65.33$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No62c64.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.996464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes31c64.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed No66c64.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.438940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes40c63.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.232828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ec…07eebacked Yes31c63.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+126.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1f…2382backed No56c63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3023633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.28551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes34c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d25…8f67backed No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes31c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5511128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes50c59.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa7…a0ccbacked No57c59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes27c57.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes40c55.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.596033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked Yes35c53.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.911050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe498…d958backed Yes38c51.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes77c50.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3612932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b79…7562backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.517433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2895…2574backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.