TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1ac6…b2ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+195.5%+$20.08
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+100%+$11
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+125.4%+$23.82
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+152.9%+$38.23
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+96.6%+$18.36
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+90.4%+$20.67
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+123.5%+$14.83
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$188
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$21.61
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.75
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+1,804.2%+$617.7
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$20.71
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.6%+$6.87
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$28
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 20 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+231.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+563.4%+$101.41
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+101.6%+$25.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$46.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealandbacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.