Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5b78d3b87fbb829a8cd2433ddcefd3659f52a711e45589f29bb3325928e8e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,669 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35cc…948abacked No | 40c | 1,800$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 27c | 1,014$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 70c | 806.02$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…f9f9backed Yes | 60c | 620$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…f32dbacked Yes | 60c | 610$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 38c | 556$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…8150backed Yes | 61c | 537.1$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 75c | 467.7$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 73c | 347.14$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 305.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 60c | 257.48$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…1766backed Yes | 64c | 235.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf4…51d4backed No | 73c | 190.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 75c | 181.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…2f06backed Yes | 56c | 153$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 13c | 152.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 147.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 147.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…d820backed No | 31c | 141.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…95dbbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…35c4backed Yes | 75c | 122.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed No | 27c | 100.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…7825backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 64c | 60.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 72c | 47.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…5775backed Yes | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed No | 40c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 39c | 32.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…402dbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 64c | 29.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…9c30backed No | 46c | 28.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…8d8dbacked Yes | 60c | 28.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…3473backed Yes | 57c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…15e0backed Yes | 75c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…c6e1backed No | 74c | 21.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…cec7backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…2f04backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…f186backed Yes | 57c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…17f5backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 9?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 9?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 9?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 9?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.