Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d21a4f37c8689c7cdf759b87e6e7c07c28a443d79e284fa5f41e03e84a8258c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 39c | 5,906$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.89 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 61c | 4,459$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.71 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 1,794$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.68 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…35c4backed Yes | 28c | 1,659$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked No | 55c | 1,414$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9e…f326backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 23c | 826.57$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.28 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 31c | 437.61$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.59 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Yes | 23c | 436.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.31 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 48c | 405$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…3960backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 53c | 349.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…cfbdbacked No | 65c | 341.74$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…fae1backed Yes | 46c | 332.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 52c | 264.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aca…fc46backed No | 55c | 263.9$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 46c | 260.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 53c | 228.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 38c | 220.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 199.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…3f09backed Yes | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed No | 61c | 187.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Yes | 35c | 172.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 169.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Yes | 35c | 168.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Yes | 46c | 153.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 46c | 142.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 52c | 114.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…a1c6backed Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…17e9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…cb04backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 46c | 99.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 46c | 91.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 81.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 55c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 18c | 65.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…15e0backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ff0ebacked Yes | 42c | 41.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 68c | 40.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…dd55backed Yes | 47c | 39.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…c047backed No | 54c | 38.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 30.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked Yes | 46c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 24.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed No | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…2a8dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…5775backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 9?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 9?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 9?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 9?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.