Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7330a43711e5ae1ecbb3333c0c30fdaa895ed1f43599c94583764623a639d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,424 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,192$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 874.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 575.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 3c | 505.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 7c | 504.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 461.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 389.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 352.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 299.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 11c | 294.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 275.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 268.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 18c | 239.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 231$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…af23backed Yes | 7c | 226$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 23c | 201.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 181.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 173.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 8c | 164.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 161.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 25c | 149.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 8c | 139.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 132.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6679…7209backed Yes | 16c | 122.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 116.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 103.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 89.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 25c | 80.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 24c | 76.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 26c | 75.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 67.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 63.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 61.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…7f5abacked Yes | 27c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 50.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 26c | 49.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 33c | 45.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…b607backed Yes | 27c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 36c | 34.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 33.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 43c | 30.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.