Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78c7603db02cd155265e09829b3f8fcb7e3a2b1bfa4e79befc989e5c9b404bcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,597 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 68c | 1,453$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,298$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,197$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 1,107$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 70c | 1,026$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 832$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 41c | 831.41$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.35 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 721.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 709.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 675.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 660.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 639.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 597.38$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.23 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 14c | 530.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 35c | 529.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 484.43$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 21c | 437.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…3d50backed Yes | 4c | 430$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 4c | 429.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 406.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 15c | 400.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 38c | 395.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 395.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 26c | 367.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 359.73$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 50c | 355.01$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 76c | 315.23$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 74c | 311.11$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed No | 37c | 300$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 68c | 299.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 291.91$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 286.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 10c | 269.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 19c | 256.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 231$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 49c | 205.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 15c | 197.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 192.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2987backed Yes | 31c | 190$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 24c | 186.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 29c | 185.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 180.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 39c | 176.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 172.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 160.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 158.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 18c | 154.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 148.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 67c | 148.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 147.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 51c | 147.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6a…13cebacked Yes | 56c | 140.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 21c | 133.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 60c | 125.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 40c | 121.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 119.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 54c | 118.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 15c | 115.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 22c | 110.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 22c | 109.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 22c | 104.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 54c | 103.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…e908backed Yes | 26c | 100.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…fb5abacked Yes | 23c | 100.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +237%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…7d6dbacked Yes | 45c | 97.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…69b8backed Yes | 32c | 97.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 92.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 66c | 83.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 20c | 81.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…0936backed Yes | 19c | 79.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 25c | 79.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 74c | 78.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 77.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 32c | 76.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 62c | 74.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 25c | 72.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 40c | 71.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 75c | 71.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 32c | 71.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 36c | 70.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 45c | 66.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…44eabacked Yes | 26c | 65.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 65.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.