Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50227777d8d0bc4986ed9eaaff8b4e824c9f1ca91e9200e80dec6cfdacb72c8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,898 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 6,187$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed Yes | 3c | 3,808$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,780$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 3c | 3,238$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,875$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 2,807$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 2,384$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 16c | 2,266$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.9 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,767$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,218$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 1,201$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,187$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,184$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…4b6cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,002$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 5c | 959.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 4c | 921.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 5c | 845$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 832$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 20c | 746.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 672.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 3c | 424.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 422.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 11c | 406.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…d9b8backed Yes | 3c | 399.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…44eabacked Yes | 5c | 334.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 8c | 320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 6c | 275.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…e000backed Yes | 6c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…3821backed Yes | 4c | 258.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…0936backed Yes | 4c | 238.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 8c | 201.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 22c | 198.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 9c | 191.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 13c | 191.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 140.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 10c | 109.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 98.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 92.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 22c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 39c | 78.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed No | 69c | 65.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 79c | 59.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 29c | 47.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 39.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 78c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.