Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x358e877ee06a51f57eb8d9be3d79b057c22d6fb8754efa48ff15a293e8100c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,083 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f17…b8f7backed Yes | 33c | 3,175$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…6779backed No | 67c | 1,620$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb74…4b7fbacked No | 67c | 1,555$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 832$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 797.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 29c | 637.27$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 601.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 540.12$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 11c | 520.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 520.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 506.07$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 28c | 502.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 440.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…d65fbacked Yes | 7c | 435.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 37c | 401.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 400.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 64c | 388.34$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 10c | 360$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 343.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 277.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 264.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 251.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 28c | 249.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 241.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 232.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 231$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd84…7147backed Yes | 43c | 230.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 35c | 227.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 38c | 222.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 6c | 215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 31c | 200.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 20c | 166.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 69c | 165.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 65c | 151$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 146.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 24c | 136.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…9e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 135.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 16c | 131.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 129.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 124.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 33c | 116.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 21c | 116.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 113.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 37c | 109.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 29c | 106.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…54a3backed Yes | 39c | 103.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 99.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 25c | 99.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 14c | 92.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 92.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 67c | 89.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 86.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 85.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 13c | 84.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 24c | 79.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 38c | 77.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 63.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 62.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 21c | 58.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 58.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 34c | 58.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…69b8backed Yes | 35c | 53.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…5666backed Yes | 34c | 52.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 51.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 50.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…698cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 38c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 68c | 48.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 39c | 47.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 35c | 47.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 35c | 46.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes | 34c | 42.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 33c | 40.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…7f5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 39.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 38.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 36c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 68c | 37.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.