Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d648f6714b8679f2aa7d9bd12cfb72a658572fd1a270b394b10922c98266c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,458 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 8c | 12,457$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.01 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 3c | 11,000$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 60c | 1,196$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 3c | 1,038$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 817.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 2c | 750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 741.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 604.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…3b94backed No | 2c | 519.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 78c | 515.64$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 12c | 512.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 489.95$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 59c | 460.98$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 46c | 393.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 54c | 383.39$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 63c | 335.7$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.64 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 60c | 326.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 78c | 289.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 250.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 227.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 62c | 220$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 213.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 43c | 196.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 54c | 184.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 41c | 180.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…f017backed No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd84…7147backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 164.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 138.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…8fd4backed No | 34c | 136$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 56c | 133.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 46c | 131.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 128.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 116$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed Yes | 44c | 108.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 76c | 105.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 48c | 97.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 40c | 95.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 57c | 94.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 64c | 90.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 55c | 90.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 59c | 87.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 47c | 86.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 32c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…6c26backed Yes | 37c | 78.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 45c | 78.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 53c | 75.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 70.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…b827backed Yes | 44c | 68.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 16c | 64.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 63.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 63.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked Yes | 43c | 62.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 50c | 62.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf905…9cc4backed Yes | 73c | 60.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 77c | 59.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 57.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…0296backed Yes | 66c | 56.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 54.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 40c | 53.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 69c | 50.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 49.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 72c | 48.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…7f5abacked Yes | 63c | 47.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 51c | 47.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 52c | 44.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…6e2cbacked Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 48c | 41.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 41.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 46c | 38.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 51c | 37.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 49c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…66a4backed Yes | 34c | 34.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc6…7bc7backed No | 30c | 33.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 56c | 33.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…d61ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.