TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,790 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff54…21afbacked Yes22c4,195$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8f…3631backed Yes2c1,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…f56ebacked No78c1,420$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3c…0739backed No78c1,415$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fdf0backed No78c1,360$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+124.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes27c837.32$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9218041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c753.74$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c666.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.732,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes2c661.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.228410.7%9 W · 75 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes4c510.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0855919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes35c499.97$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.997823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes12c431.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c420.86$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c5…926dbacked No64c314.48$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes28c314.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.835527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes4c294.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes18c267.39$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c240$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes22c220$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.731,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c209.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c200$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes19c188$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7234748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c157.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.431,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No69c149.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb746…2540backed Yes41c146.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes10c139.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0119123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes21c133.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No74c127.74$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No75c127.44$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4418727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No63c125.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes21c108.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.691,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes23c107.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c100.97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes13c100.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4311619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…84d5backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139778.4%76 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes36c99.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c96.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes21c85.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes26c84.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2217364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes37c69.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.98551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c69.86$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c66.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.887233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2074338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd066…b607backed Yes27c56.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes38c53.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes41c51.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2181029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c51.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9aa6…54a4backed No78c51.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.221258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No70c50.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe273…e74bbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213a…7f5abacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No63c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.398640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No79c42.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa51c…7427backed Yes36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No61c40.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.13,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c40.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes36c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No63c39.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.571,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66f…a654backed No65c36.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.68977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c48…3622backed No73c31.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe592…4b2dbacked No65c30.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No67c29.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No72c29.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbe…6653backed No73c29.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No78c28.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3927771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…5ce7backed No73c27.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.383122.6%7 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c26.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2c5…b9b6backed No77c23.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.312369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a7…ab77backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No70c19.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8965…e0cabacked No78c18.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2875%6 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1429056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9853…2f25backed No70c16.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.846563.1%41 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf03d…2bcfbacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.453278.1%25 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c14.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4276371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd946…ccf7backed No77c14.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.29450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed No80c13.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7416242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.