Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf8bd88856c33a3a1710d857b6cbc6f70c82641f4bf577fd6d9c1db7d4c8336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,790 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff54…21afbacked Yes | 22c | 4,195$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…f56ebacked No | 78c | 1,420$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…0739backed No | 78c | 1,415$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…fdf0backed No | 78c | 1,360$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 837.32$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 753.74$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 666.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 2c | 661.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 510.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 35c | 499.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 431.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 420.86$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…926dbacked No | 64c | 314.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 28c | 314.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 4c | 294.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 18c | 267.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 240$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 220$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 209.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 19c | 188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 157.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 41c | 146.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 10c | 139.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 21c | 133.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 127.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 75c | 127.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 125.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 108.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 23c | 107.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 100.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 13c | 100.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 36c | 99.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 96.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 85.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 69.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…b607backed Yes | 27c | 56.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 38c | 53.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 51.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 51.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 78c | 51.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 50.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…7f5abacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 42.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 40.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 40.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 65c | 36.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…3622backed No | 73c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…4b2dbacked No | 65c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 72c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…6653backed No | 73c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 28.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 77c | 23.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 70c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…e0cabacked No | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 70c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…ccf7backed No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 80c | 13.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.