TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3034…dd88backed Yes26c2,191$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes49c1,917$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.8114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No75c1,698$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.391770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…612fbacked Yes22c1,625$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No75c1,304$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.746640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes46c1,245$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.447848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,210$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No25c1,199$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.71024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,041$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.455327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c975.59$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.813831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No69c943.41$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6496654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No76c875.99$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.517548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes47c771.39$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.4535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c669.41$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.7830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf98…ffc6backed No45c604.61$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No77c599.16$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.3515855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes22c573.06$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.068055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No53c530.17$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.123943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3754942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes31c483.48$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.484057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes21c481.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.772326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…ed25backed Yes27c463.35$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.372060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88da…15c6backed No74c454.5$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c401$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6726835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c392.06$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1111840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ba…4cedbacked No75c367.04$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-56.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3cc5…5f49backed No78c362$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes73c360.51$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.787462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfde4…fc58backed No78c347$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked No73c332.96$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes24c332.09$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…216ebacked No78c321$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd782…2776backed No78c318$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x905b…c9d1backed No73c308.41$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.841172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+40.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No65c277$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7829416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe678…82b8backed No78c277$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No78c269.98$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3814150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No76c262.2$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.272147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+164.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c257.93$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9213128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd53…8dd1backed No45c249.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.421030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90eb…9303backed Yes22c221.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No70c215.66$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3d66…7851backed No75c200.48$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ec…57d5backed No74c200$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1472152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa4…82cfbacked Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No76c196.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf01a…f231backed Yes54c194.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.771872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+50.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes40c193.04$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7311645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No71c179.71$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.142352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed No77c176.88$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.666061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No74c164.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c2b…e55dbacked No43c163.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff1…7234backed No72c163.57$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes37c157.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.773351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c154.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.357735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No28c145.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.584628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…f77fbacked Yes44c126.85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189d…981bbacked No77c125.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6c…3407backed No80c125.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b5…072ebacked Yes28c124.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+79.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No65c121$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.763246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x028c…bc32backed No67c118.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb49…c150backed Yes27c116.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.061346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes20c115.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.15133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No75c114.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.711747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…b23ebacked No67c111.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked No27c106.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No56c106.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.458355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6795…c55dbacked Yes25c105.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.99757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No74c104$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.962832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2468…3280backed Yes29c103.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed Yes30c102$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+79.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6934…0aa7backed No75c100.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe0…48e5backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No76c94.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.081850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked No67c94.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes12c93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.841127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked No73c91.11$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a35…bdc6backed No74c90$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4021…83e5backed Yes22c90$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+142.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes37c89.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.596136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0c…178abacked Yes21c85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+266.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes23c84.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.912225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes38c83.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.712250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7092…7b4ebacked No77c81.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes30c78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.261346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes30c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked No75c75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed Yes29c74.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.983680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes40c74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.41650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.217232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37af…2f21backed No71c65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.