TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes36c3,013$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.91625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95c…5e0bbacked No74c2,805$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3034…dd88backed Yes41c2,455$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes43c1,744$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.72633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x826e…2bebbacked No72c1,378$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No60c1,352$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.8435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeeff…9b38backed Yes37c1,299$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes23c1,270$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.155133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes24c1,200$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.991450%7 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+73.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c1,178$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.58712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No67c1,045$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.157462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa18c…5019backed Yes5c1,010$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe304…4de0backed Yes5c975$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35a…0e39backed Yes5c970$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb860…b76fbacked Yes5c968$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2415…f255backed Yes5c968$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8277…6cdfbacked Yes5c965$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d02…1eeebacked Yes5c950$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4151…c84bbacked Yes5c946$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No58c900$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3787548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c881.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3613128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes19c846.45$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.93414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c827.24$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No61c820$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7b6…ea66backed Yes5c810$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d3…c62dbacked Yes5c810$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d13…72c6backed Yes5c810$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e96…51b7backed Yes5c810$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa917…85c1backed Yes5c809.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b1…2bc2backed Yes4c805$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe26…88cabacked Yes4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474f…a58dbacked Yes5c794.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a2b…4aeabacked Yes5c790$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9386…0714backed Yes5c790$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba43…88d1backed Yes5c789.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes25c787.73$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.883246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1658…7ea2backed Yes5c781.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5d…16febacked Yes5c780$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+311.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb82…13d8backed Yes5c780$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…110fbacked Yes5c780$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f42…7549backed Yes5c775$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94f…ffc0backed Yes5c752.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes15c715.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ed…27e3backed Yes5c680$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa092…0e1fbacked Yes5c680$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…5797backed Yes5c670$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b3…437abacked Yes5c661$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5343…e92bbacked Yes5c660$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada0…667ebacked Yes5c660$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53fd…66bbbacked Yes5c660$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdba…01c0backed Yes5c657.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…92b4backed Yes5c657$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9514…aa01backed Yes5c654$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8df…8d86backed Yes5c654$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef9…b727backed Yes5c652$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd534…4651backed Yes5c652$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x493c…6c24backed Yes5c640$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88da…15c6backed No62c601.37$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…612fbacked Yes13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No69c598.75$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.756654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No74c589.9$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.763759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No63c570.14$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.849962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes27c564.07$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.953351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes27c546.91$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes28c545.83$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.888639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No68c541.4$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.425337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No60c460.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.41770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No79c438.26$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd53…8dd1backed No75c425.82$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.781030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No57c410.89$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.892759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No80c403.67$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.962138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…2e56backed Yes5c399.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed Yes39c392.31$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c357.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…ed25backed Yes12c319.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.42060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked No71c316.14$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0f…e413backed Yes36c312.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes23c310$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.32326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed No66c304.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.472568%17 W · 8 L+7.0wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4153…c423backed No66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb11e…ca1fbacked No67c298.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c284.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.631074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No78c255$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.714150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes34c252.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.867735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes41c249.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3611840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No58c242.44$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3411645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f7b…a114backed No65c239.55$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…02d8backed Yes15c238$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+139.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes6c232.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.682352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No65c220$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No70c213.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.456142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c212.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No57c201.65$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.71771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a58…4508backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bbc…c03cbacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…0f0bbacked No79c189.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed No65c185.92$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.576944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.