Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cdbd32b1a55f58c90dc1f1a24c83af8d68f0a8fb7c8b2743d36fb873e9e3951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 79c | 1,043$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 24c | 799.92$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 588.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…9042backed Yes | 19c | 538.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…adc5backed Yes | 15c | 401.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 79c | 350.01$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 10c | 306.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 246.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…02d8backed Yes | 10c | 230.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 206.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 19c | 169.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 153.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed No | 74c | 150.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 11c | 147.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 140.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 117.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 77c | 115.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8d…1657backed Yes | 19c | 105.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…56c9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 74c | 80.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 80c | 79.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 54c | 78.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 40c | 61.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3472…61e6backed No | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 75c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed No | 70c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.