Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99cc99ecbd0a8dc28273b4913479e2143583817f7f9be1060b0ff21cee24d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 78c | 2,233$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.42 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 23c | 1,600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 27c | 1,591$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.2 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 70c | 1,463$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.24 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 17c | 922.2$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed Yes | 63c | 823.17$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 499.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 37c | 498.53$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 433.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 22c | 378.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 69c | 271.53$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…981bbacked Yes | 72c | 261.59$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…8dd1backed No | 20c | 250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 233.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 20c | 191.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed No | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 39c | 118.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 42c | 117.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 23c | 115.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…4c93backed No | 28c | 108.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…0aa7backed Yes | 69c | 100.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…57d5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 98.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 78c | 97.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked No | 34c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 62c | 60.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 31c | 52.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 49.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 26c | 46.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 80c | 42.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…a89abacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 27c | 37.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…a2f1backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 32c | 33.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 40c | 32.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…358fbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…caa1backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 56c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.