Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebd592bc5ff9357f46934e4a9edbbeb6030918438fe50eb4177ec205960448a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 579.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 293.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 217.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 213.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 32c | 184.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 160.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…47d4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 90.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 76.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 34c | 74.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed Yes | 31c | 72.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 71.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…4252backed Yes | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 29c | 68.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 30c | 58.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 31c | 55.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 50.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 39.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 37c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 40c | 29.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.