Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6e6d9017a2c84c2f2fa8ce54bfeb42244f2ff843f16da2cc139977446b95b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92ce…b0b9backed No | 0c | 11,569$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…c0f1backed Yes | 44c | 1,925$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…4edfbacked No | 56c | 1,925$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 1,020$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 823.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 464.24$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 54c | 454.4$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 68c | 374.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 54c | 368$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 28c | 357.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 347.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 331.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 66c | 261.77$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 68c | 215$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 71c | 199.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 63c | 159.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 155.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 153.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 58c | 138.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 58c | 118.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 111.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 56c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…22cfbacked No | 58c | 103.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 64c | 98.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 95.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 57c | 91.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…65afbacked Yes | 55c | 90.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 71c | 87.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 87.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 31c | 81.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 35c | 75.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 79c | 75.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 45c | 74.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 58c | 71.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 77c | 71.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 57c | 71.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 45c | 69.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 47c | 63.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 60.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…e684backed No | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 51c | 59.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 56.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 54.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 32c | 54.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 61c | 53.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 43c | 53.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 52.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…0a7fbacked No | 74c | 52.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 45c | 50.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes | 62c | 49.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 40.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…4252backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…64cdbacked No | 70c | 38.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 68c | 36.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 59c | 32.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 59c | 32.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…8da7backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 53c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 56c | 28.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 57c | 28.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 27.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 59c | 24.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…56c0backed No | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…89b7backed Yes | 59c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 53c | 19.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 61c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…e6a5backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.