Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e65e653716e925d21aa99f78cc8768fc28467c0409af98d1f64d021be379f67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,445 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d68…fe87backed No | 0c | 15,861$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 9c | 5,407$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 1c | 2,363$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 1,798$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 535.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 526.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 511.35$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 28c | 509.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 411$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 391.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 364.15$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 353.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 338.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…11e9backed Yes | 30c | 333.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 315.2$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 46c | 311.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 5c | 310$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 62c | 291.76$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 281.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 32c | 271.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 35c | 259.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 41c | 243.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 78c | 233.92$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 229.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 58c | 221.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 52c | 209.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 180.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 32c | 177.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 168.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 163.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 57c | 160.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 77c | 153.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 21c | 151.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 144.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 130.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 71c | 125.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 34c | 121$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…5379backed Yes | 25c | 117.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 41c | 113.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 109.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 108.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…f11abacked Yes | 70c | 105.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 98.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 53c | 97.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…a41bbacked Yes | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 23c | 93.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 23c | 92.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 87.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 86.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 49c | 85.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 54c | 83.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 81.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 80.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 18c | 75.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 27c | 74.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 73.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 76c | 70.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 26c | 70.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 23c | 69.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 32c | 69.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…f412backed Yes | 24c | 66.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 64.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 60.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…b827backed Yes | 57c | 60.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 25c | 59.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 57.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 49c | 57.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 27c | 56.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…9436backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 25c | 54.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 56c | 53.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 53.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 43c | 53.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 52.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…7d6dbacked Yes | 59c | 51.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 58c | 49.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 69c | 46.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.