Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d88e54ae63e838077210cdd76f80f29f33a53b51bc5feb38b54d030c113f3db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,446 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 0c | 10,212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9858…8e9dbacked Yes | 27c | 4,001$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 5c | 3,053$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…293ebacked No | 73c | 1,341$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2297…d7d5backed No | 73c | 1,335$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…d1fdbacked No | 73c | 1,325$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 849.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 14c | 657.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 14c | 635.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 571.81$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…8d7cbacked Yes | 7c | 556.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 540.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 510$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 2c | 505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 489.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 455.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 5c | 450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 10c | 381.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 362.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 350.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 317.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 299.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 298.52$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 285.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…11e9backed Yes | 24c | 272.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 212.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 21c | 192.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 10c | 177.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 20c | 172.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 149.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 125.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 25c | 121.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 15c | 115.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 108.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 26c | 107.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…5379backed Yes | 24c | 105.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…8fe0backed Yes | 19c | 102.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 102.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8f…3155backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…d937backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 17c | 99.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 16c | 98.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 90.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 17c | 87.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 87.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 19c | 86.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…a41bbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…5841backed Yes | 20c | 65.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 60.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 21c | 60.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…416bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 20c | 56.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…3e17backed Yes | 22c | 55.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 22c | 55.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 22c | 54.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 53.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes | 22c | 52.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…9404backed Yes | 21c | 52.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 77c | 44.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked No | 76c | 39.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.