Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b16d430350eef59924c9a7420c2c50687718b6a56309c5e6c560176bc47899b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87cf…4a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 16c | 3,837$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.28 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…8354backed Yes | 31c | 2,995$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 1,690$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…6736backed No | 69c | 1,515$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…2580backed No | 69c | 1,480$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 1,191$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 78c | 1,065$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,015$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 904.99$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.62 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 822.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 76c | 735.55$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.83 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 710.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 636.36$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 17c | 606.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 451.08$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 17c | 438.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 432.25$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 12c | 425.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 30c | 402.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 9c | 395$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 325.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 39c | 309.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706d…1c5abacked Yes | 35c | 287.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 14c | 278.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 276$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 17c | 275.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…11e9backed Yes | 32c | 268.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 12c | 263.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 77c | 256.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 251$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…0b67backed No | 79c | 249.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 8c | 212.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 210.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 15c | 204.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…ddccbacked No | 74c | 199.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad2…eb4bbacked No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 192.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 42c | 192.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 190.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 16c | 190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 186.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 180.79$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 15c | 169.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 162.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 63c | 158.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 152$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 39c | 149.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 17c | 142.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 44c | 136.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 135.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 16c | 134.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 131.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 123.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…5379backed Yes | 39c | 114.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 108.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 28c | 108.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 38c | 104.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 102.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 22c | 101.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 34c | 101.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb339…38a5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 12c | 92.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 33c | 91.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 30c | 83.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 38c | 75.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 18c | 72.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 26c | 71.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 28c | 68.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 31c | 64.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 61.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…1f44backed Yes | 34c | 60.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 29c | 57.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…49a5backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 20c | 52.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 50.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.