Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd114aab8ab6798f207202d5cc19fba8b3656eaadf0b54a972e51415f22ab17c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,283 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 5c | 3,820$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…54a3backed Yes | 2c | 2,340$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 7c | 1,367$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 7c | 1,148$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,021$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 941.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 675.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 558.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 12c | 520.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 509.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 8c | 499.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 486.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 4c | 470.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 446.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 7c | 438.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 410.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 8c | 375.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 12c | 352.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…c03abacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 9c | 331.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 328.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 5c | 287.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 15c | 286.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 7c | 273.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 255.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 232.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 221.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 209.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc38c…fd95backed Yes | 6c | 188.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 173.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 171.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 23c | 170.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 10c | 161.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…a7a6backed Yes | 7c | 159.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 154.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 16c | 147.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 11c | 131.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed Yes | 10c | 125.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…c17ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 9c | 122.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…67f7backed Yes | 23c | 79.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 44.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 41.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 75c | 39.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 61c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…13cebacked No | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.