Earnings · resolved market
Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a47535f6040c369a9902a7ebb54dfa43ded65d7cfa75e360a9c888c7f057d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 47c | 958.65$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.27 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 46c | 244.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 53c | 225.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 55c | 209.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 52c | 206.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 61c | 196.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 147$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 40c | 142$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 50c | 140.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 27c | 97.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316d…ef66backed Yes | 52c | 91.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 56c | 78.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 70.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 54c | 47.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Yes | 42c | 26.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 51c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 51c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.