Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cadf7c04045e625edfa3b879119129f9cb41d61e770855ec91731a34602109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,229 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ec…5f25backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 3,360$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.95 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 10c | 2,099$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 21c | 927.95$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.1 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 718.75$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.32 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 60c | 696.92$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 35c | 649.72$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 487.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 3c | 476.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 438.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 426.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 399.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 386.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…5814backed Yes | 26c | 374.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 43c | 340.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 40c | 328.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 32c | 311.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 36c | 277.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 35c | 276.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 269.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 17c | 267.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 55c | 250$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…1745backed Yes | 59c | 241.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…e391backed Yes | 17c | 234.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 71c | 226.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 223.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 199.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 58c | 199.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 193.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 187.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 185.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 183.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 34c | 179.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 41c | 173.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7c…b686backed Yes | 42c | 171.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 25c | 170.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed No | 52c | 166.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 163.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 157.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 15c | 154.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 50c | 152.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 13c | 152.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 36c | 148.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 146.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 48c | 144.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 10c | 144.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 48c | 132.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…68a5backed Yes | 40c | 128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 46c | 127.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 30c | 126.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 18c | 123.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 58c | 120.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 50c | 119.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 118.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 42c | 117.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 115.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 53c | 113.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…dcb8backed Yes | 50c | 111.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 43c | 110.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 70c | 108.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 24c | 105.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 104.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 44c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 26c | 98.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 63c | 95.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 90.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 46c | 90.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 55c | 89.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…4e38backed Yes | 36c | 83.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 34c | 83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…5807backed No | 58c | 80.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 79.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 77.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 77.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 24c | 76.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…339abacked Yes | 52c | 75.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 74.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 50c | 71.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 67.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 37c | 66.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 65.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 65.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.