TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,305 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d9e…5421backed No76c2,754$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.151625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9873…c59ebacked No80c1,387$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes24c1,359$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.5228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes26c1,242$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.6535018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No9c871.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0427841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c853.78$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.631,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes55c852.71$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.7431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes43c800.57$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.2877428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No41c717.47$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes70c688.03$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked No17c681.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.93862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c605.95$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a55…359cbacked Yes45c564.92$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.552222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes31c507.44$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.532,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes37c476.42$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes40c468.93$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.071,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No40c446.46$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c430.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c421.21$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.756,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes35c383.01$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed No29c361.49$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No21c351.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes35c344.91$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.92630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c290.4$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c280.67$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.113,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c276.49$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes59c275.31$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.528835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No23c270.75$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8629922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No68c270$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.610542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes24c250$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.811,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No30c249.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4911956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c239.67$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No48c235.11$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.681,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No63c228.66$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.091,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes34c218.88$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.295527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c212.33$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes40c208.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4311146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c201.04$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.291,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes31c195.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes42c193.81$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes37c188.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.247146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c188.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c174.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.858,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed No56c174.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No20c166.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.332,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3808…d64bbacked No65c162.41$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.971250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes43c160$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No73c158.67$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3316355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes30c158.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2134617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…99aebacked Yes78c156.82$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No53c153.57$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.981,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No68c150.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.788250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.191,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4210…dd70backed No71c146.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4617040%68 W · 102 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes70c142.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.615570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes52c142.11$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes36c126.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.771947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes22c121.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.461,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes19c118.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.281,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked No69c118.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.135139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes42c118.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.417135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes46c112.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.575453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No63c111.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0113453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c109.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.092,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No57c108.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.939250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0035…f917backed Yes44c105.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.41955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No20c105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1212223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd88…01bcbacked Yes76c101.28$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes36c101$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9911038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x953a…6646backed Yes46c100.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes35c100.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5317338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7611337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7254143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…d167backed Yes30c99.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.135425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes42c98.62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.037233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No58c95.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.431,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No28c91.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes33c91.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.033432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f7…b205backed No32c90.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.591225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c89.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.493,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f04…b5a1backed No67c89.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No23c89.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No59c87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes29c85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.751,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2a…3cc5backed No48c83.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c80.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No77c80$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No62c79.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.267552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes24c79.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2410531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes39c77.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.465334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes40c76.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c74.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes41c72.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.811145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.