Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eaa241abcd2019db4f3e6f84c084c1c82a7c6800bc090de4144a1a35a170109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,305 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 76c | 2,754$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…c59ebacked No | 80c | 1,387$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 24c | 1,359$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.52 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,242$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.65 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 9c | 871.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 853.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 55c | 852.71$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.74 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 43c | 800.57$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.28 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 41c | 717.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.57 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 70c | 688.03$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…0f8cbacked No | 17c | 681.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 605.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 45c | 564.92$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 507.44$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 37c | 476.42$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 40c | 468.93$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.07 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 446.46$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 430.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 421.21$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 383.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.39 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed No | 29c | 361.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 351.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 35c | 344.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 290.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 280.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 276.49$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 59c | 275.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 23c | 270.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 68c | 270$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 30c | 249.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 239.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 235.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 63c | 228.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 34c | 218.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 212.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 40c | 208.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 201.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 31c | 195.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 193.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 37c | 188.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 188.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 174.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed No | 56c | 174.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 20c | 166.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked No | 65c | 162.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 73c | 158.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 30c | 158.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…99aebacked Yes | 78c | 156.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 153.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 68c | 150.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed No | 71c | 146.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 70c | 142.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 52c | 142.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…f224backed Yes | 36c | 126.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 121.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 118.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked No | 69c | 118.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 42c | 118.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 46c | 112.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 63c | 111.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 109.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 57c | 108.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 44c | 105.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…01bcbacked Yes | 76c | 101.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 46c | 100.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 35c | 100.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 30c | 99.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 42c | 98.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 95.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 28c | 91.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 33c | 91.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed No | 32c | 90.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…b5a1backed No | 67c | 89.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 23c | 89.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 59c | 87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 29c | 85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…3cc5backed No | 48c | 83.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 80.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 62c | 79.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 79.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 39c | 77.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 76.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 74.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…e473backed Yes | 41c | 72.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.