Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a79ce34b59505409c7c7e6b02a57fb13f8e2c12dd95b1b5a7d7e990ddc1c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,868 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 2,395$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,118$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…269fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 6c | 1,223$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 15c | 840.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 7c | 830.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 819.35$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 789.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 627.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 512.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 24c | 464.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 447.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 395.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 376.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 352.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 37c | 350.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 8c | 346.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +425.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 11c | 297.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 293.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 289.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 38c | 288.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 23c | 276.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 34c | 254.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 238.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 219.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 24c | 198.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 31c | 193.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 182.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 159.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 10c | 140.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 71c | 140.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 139.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 29c | 138.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 31c | 134.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 11c | 134.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 133.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 127.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 124.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 14c | 118.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 16c | 114.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 69c | 114.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 11c | 108.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 70c | 107.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 101.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 27c | 100.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 23c | 98.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 34c | 98.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes | 32c | 93.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 90.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 28c | 86.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 79.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 76.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 70.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 30c | 62.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…037dbacked No | 74c | 60.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 51.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…07f0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 68c | 42.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 30c | 40.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 39.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 33c | 38.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…43c0backed No | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 31c | 33.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 31.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…4397backed No | 66c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…ad55backed Yes | 36c | 30.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 29.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…3a52backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…698cbacked No | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…e4bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.