Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531a9adb678d26c8bec1cf4e827be095653b8982404ea453e8375fb348d7fe5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,977 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,859$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,794$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,945$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,477$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,090$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 2c | 803.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 4c | 751.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 734.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 5c | 671.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 4c | 670.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 603.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 5c | 559.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 7c | 555.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 520.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 390$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 5c | 384.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…6b5abacked Yes | 12c | 375$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 356.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 4c | 330.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 4c | 324.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 280.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 27c | 248.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 5c | 248$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 9c | 219.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…23abbacked Yes | 12c | 204.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 175.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 29c | 167.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 166$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 155.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 17c | 148.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…a83dbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 103.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…0045backed Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5d2cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 88.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…928abacked Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 87.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.