TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,281 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe138…6aa4backed Yes0c12,030$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…ce09backed Yes23c2,782$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.811833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9091…f710backed Yes1c2,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-90.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c1,666$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6635232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes1c1,063$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes2c1,059$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8835018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes15c999.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.987823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c870.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes18c806.46$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6918041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes13c793.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes9c733.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.649429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes7c640.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.834617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes13c636.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5428737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes15c543.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3824216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfb…8e02backed Yes12c506.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-62.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4886…b799backed Yes4c469.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes16c455.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.069626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c452.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.811,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes16c411.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes13c406.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.961,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf295…667abacked Yes10c405.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.862347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c400.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c386.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.751,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes15c359.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.311,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes15c355$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes12c339.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes15c325.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes14c316.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6922023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes10c257.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6916434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes20c252$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.251,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes21c223.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes23c220$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8126253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes6c219.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.225742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c188.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6457…101fbacked Yes16c183.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes26c182.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1741046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf2e6…c602backed Yes9c169.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853452.9%18 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf083…3428backed Yes8c154.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.284126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes17c149.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c149.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes16c145$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7554143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c135.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes18c134.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes22c133.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c131.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.791,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes16c128.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes15c126.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes22c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7529642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes23c123.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes20c122.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes30c122.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9675…b63fbacked Yes13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x389e…3179backed Yes18c119.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dbe…f3debacked Yes12c116$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3980%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes15c115.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.867233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No80c113.9$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.787576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd4…d12abacked Yes29c112.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No78c111.85$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.151,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes17c108$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes21c105.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes23c102$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8617338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff5…3489backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e2…a410backed Yes26c97.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c95.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xed3a…fac7backed Yes11c93.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes19c93.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6720546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked Yes27c93.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…b923backed Yes15c88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.497440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes19c85.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes18c82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7611425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc70…1103backed Yes21c79.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes28c79.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes17c79.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…fe01backed Yes20c75.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c73.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes17c69.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.899724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes18c69.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x279e…5994backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No80c65.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…bebabacked Yes20c64.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes23c59.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.724432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdb…ddefbacked No77c48.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.963100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d98…a232backed Yes22c44.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103250%16 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.211,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No77c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No79c27.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No76c26.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.317764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3214071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc023…ca28backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6270…43edbacked No79c24.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4d…89b7backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.244448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…d62fbacked No80c18.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No71c18.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.261,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.