Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119010ab7a522ecd5f435a1f6999c8fe063a2d3b3a2a35f4cf93e2cd622ca7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe138…6aa4backed Yes | 0c | 12,030$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 23c | 2,782$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 1c | 1,063$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 15c | 999.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 870.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 18c | 806.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 793.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 9c | 733.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 640.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 13c | 636.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 15c | 543.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…8e02backed Yes | 12c | 506.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…b799backed Yes | 4c | 469.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 16c | 455.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 452.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 411.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 406.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 10c | 405.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 400.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 386.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 359.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 15c | 355$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 339.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 325.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 14c | 316.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 10c | 257.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 252$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes | 21c | 223.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 23c | 220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 6c | 219.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 188.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…101fbacked Yes | 16c | 183.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 26c | 182.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 9c | 169.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 8c | 154.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 17c | 149.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 149.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 135.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 134.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 22c | 133.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 131.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 16c | 128.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 15c | 126.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 23c | 123.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 20c | 122.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes | 30c | 122.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f3debacked Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 15c | 115.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 80c | 113.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…d12abacked Yes | 29c | 112.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 111.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 21c | 105.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 23c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed Yes | 26c | 97.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 95.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…fac7backed Yes | 11c | 93.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 19c | 93.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 19c | 85.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 28c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 17c | 79.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…fe01backed Yes | 20c | 75.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 73.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 17c | 69.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 18c | 69.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 80c | 65.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 20c | 64.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 23c | 59.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ddefbacked No | 77c | 48.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 22c | 44.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 79c | 27.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ca28backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…43edbacked No | 79c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…89b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…d62fbacked No | 80c | 18.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 71c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.