TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes0c18,040$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.456217.7%11 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe138…6aa4backed Yes0c11,220$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf295…667abacked Yes2c7,499$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.22347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x711a…ce09backed Yes35c2,763$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.971833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0a0…7f07backed Yes27c2,627$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c1…a46fbacked Yes36c2,595$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dda…0218backed Yes36c2,590$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…7f32backed Yes2c2,124$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes2c1,800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1483…10c2backed No64c1,342$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb2…df61backed No73c1,327$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068b…60dfbacked No64c1,324$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x621b…bc4dbacked No73c1,300$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e9…f50dbacked No64c1,266$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…8c88backed No64c1,253$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes22c1,003$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.257823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes28c918.43$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26035018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes23c563.11$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.051,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c521.57$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes31c509.91$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.718041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes18c506$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.581225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No79c503.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.581855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c502.16$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes26c445.9$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0877428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c418.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.341,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes27c405.36$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4824216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes30c387.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4326253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c370.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.541,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb58…63e0backed Yes26c338.41$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c327.78$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.993,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes36c317$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No75c310.08$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3224966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c305$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c298.58$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c285.46$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389e…3179backed Yes35c277.79$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.231346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes21c266.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.619429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes22c245.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1516434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes38c243.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes19c237.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c235.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes23c229.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.477233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes22c226.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed No76c223.08$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.081346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes22c220.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.855527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c218.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.841,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes26c214.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3334617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No73c208.97$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.11,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes21c196.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c195.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c183.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.713,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes25c176.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes17c175.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes32c173$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.544337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes22c163.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.741,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No75c163.29$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.521,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes32c157.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No78c150.84$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes33c149.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…f630backed Yes18c144.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.433525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes25c144.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.662,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes22c139$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes18c138.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5456424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b7…ce76backed Yes28c135.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes20c133.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes32c132.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.111,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc70…1103backed Yes34c130$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c127.4$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes23c125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.829642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c124.53$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.341,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No79c120.46$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.421,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes28c120.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.481,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x279e…5994backed Yes41c114.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.253444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6457…101fbacked Yes27c113.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8e…2ae5backed Yes25c112$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes23c109$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.078551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes19c108$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes34c105.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes21c102$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2317338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes26c100.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7628737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.323633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff5…3489backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes18c98.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.843333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes23c95.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No79c94.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c93.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes52c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.620546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes23c87.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ea…baa6backed Yes24c86.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10c…dbb1backed Yes46c86.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes18c85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.311425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6032…4245backed Yes31c81.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.084330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.