Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe891f6925f7cf88f824fc3915ba2affebe153cf09b36f8303018eabe0e4ff3a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 8,836$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.26 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 4,567$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…7f32backed Yes | 3c | 4,195$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 8c | 3,078$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.38 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 30c | 1,974$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe138…6aa4backed Yes | 1c | 1,498$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 8c | 1,292$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,205$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.02 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 1,179$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 1,096$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 837.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 762$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 702.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 692.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 676.23$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 20c | 601.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 513.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 13c | 487.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 18c | 479.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 8c | 422.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 12c | 416.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 411.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 397$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 378.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 375$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 10c | 374.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 372.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 364.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 71c | 361.19$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 353.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 9c | 274$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 262.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 18c | 257.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 251.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 14c | 243.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 237.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes | 20c | 234.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 22c | 227.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 10c | 227.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 9c | 207.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 8c | 199.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 187.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 184.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 16c | 169.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 10c | 155.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 23c | 147$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 19c | 139.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 138.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 137.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 80c | 136.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 9c | 133.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…9911backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 14c | 128.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 19c | 123.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…71ecbacked Yes | 9c | 123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…5222backed Yes | 24c | 122$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…7901backed Yes | 23c | 122$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…67b8backed Yes | 11c | 116.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 13c | 112.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 12c | 110.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 10c | 108.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…2561backed Yes | 25c | 106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 15c | 103.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…101fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…dbb1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 21c | 99.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…d958backed Yes | 12c | 98.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 21c | 93.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 92.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 26c | 86.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…6448backed Yes | 22c | 85.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…d12abacked Yes | 17c | 85.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 17c | 82.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 67c | 82.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 19c | 77.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 78c | 74.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…1ee9backed Yes | 27c | 71.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 68.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…63e0backed Yes | 20c | 68.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…0c56backed Yes | 22c | 67.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…d065backed Yes | 18c | 62.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 20c | 62.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 80c | 59.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2a33backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 54.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 22c | 53.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.